Research brief · Featured project
Argentina Inflation Forecast Lab
How do statistical inflation forecasts compare with a benchmark?
Approach and data
Historical evaluation of time-series forecasting approaches, comparing a reference forecast with ARIMA and SARIMA models.
Documented evidence
Historical MAE: benchmark 0.307, ARIMA 0.442, SARIMA 0.463 percentage points.
Interpretation and limitations
These are historical evaluation errors, not current inflation forecasts. Performance is sample- and specification-dependent.
Transparency: Consult the full project and Spanish research brief for the exact data coverage, assumptions and supporting materials. This page is a translated research summary, not a new empirical analysis.